Three are out and only four are left in the race! Rick Perry quit and endorsed Newt while Huntsman dropped out and endorsed Romney. I think that Perry may be trying to get a position in the administration if Newt wins, the same goes for Huntsman is Romney wins. Huntsman and Perry both seemed to get along with the man they endorsed, while Newt and Mitt seem to almost detest each other. Michelle Bachmann also dropped out after losing in her home state in last...if you don't count Huntsman who wasn't even in the state.
As everyone knows the Iowa caucus has taken place and Mitt Romney lost to Rick Santorum but only by 34 votes. The Iowa caucus isn't a real primary, it's more of a popularity contest and its record for picking winners is 50/50. It was originally thought Romney won, but that was a mistake and I think that since he lost but such a low number it's pretty much a tie. Ron Paul came in second with Newt Gingrich coming in "third". The rest don't matter since they aren't in the race!
Man what a shocker that Santorum won Iowa, well kinda, like I said it's a popularity contest. But the New Hampshire Primary isn't just a popularity contest...it's a PRIMARY! Romney won with a large part of the votes, about 40% of the votes with Paul once again in second place. Third was Huntsman, but he doesn't matter anymore. Then comes ole' Newt with just under 10% of the votes in fourth place! Santorum came in at about 10% as well so effectively they tied for fourth position.
Now onto the interesting part of the story... the South Carolina primary. Newt came in with 40% of the votes! What?! Something that has never happened before happened when he won, somebody different won the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, and the South Carolina primary! This means that as of now...the race is open to Santorum, Newt, and Romney; Paul can't and won't win. Then Romney came in with 27% a whopping 13 points behind Newt! Santorum and Paul came in rounding out the last positions with 17% and 13%, respectively.
Something to keep in mind is that South Carolina is a very conservative state while New Hampshire is a moderate-left of center type of state. What does that mean? Romney is a moderate Republican; some would say to moderate for the Republican Party. Newt is very conservative and has an excellent track record in the debates; I would say that he was won all of them. But Santorum is also very conservative, so why didn't he win? It may be because he doesn't excite people like Newt can, he can be very much a lightening rod. Paul will always have his supporters, if nothing else they are loyal to their candidate.
Something to keep in mind is that South Carolina is a very conservative state while New Hampshire is a moderate-left of center type of state. What does that mean? Romney is a moderate Republican; some would say to moderate for the Republican Party. Newt is very conservative and has an excellent track record in the debates; I would say that he was won all of them. But Santorum is also very conservative, so why didn't he win? It may be because he doesn't excite people like Newt can, he can be very much a lightening rod. Paul will always have his supporters, if nothing else they are loyal to their candidate.
The question will come down to Florida in the end I believe. Who will win and come in second. Florida isn't as conservative or religious as South Carolina; the population is also about four times larger. Florida has about 19 million people while South Carolina sits right under 5 million people. I think that Santorum will come in third and Paul last, though I could be very surprised, since a large portion of Florida's voters are senior citizens; who always vote. Senior citizens are generally conservative when it comes to social issues and finical laws and regulations. I think that Romney will come in first or a close second, if Newt doesn't push things to hard. But since this race has been so crazy so far...Ron Paul might win! If Santorum doesn't place well then I see him drogping out of the race.
If nothing else they can enjoy the sun as this lady is! |
This post has been updated above.
I'll be writing up a new post about how the Republican primaries have gone and the debates as well! And the major changes that could come to the race!